What do India's 5 bull markets say about the current one

Are we in the middle of one of the longest bull markets in India which could be compared only with the one we had witnessed between 2003 and 2008? Analysts at Morgan Stanley think so, provided corporate earnings start showing an uptick, they said in a new report.On an average bull phases in the Indian market lasted 72 weeks if one takes out the 2003-08 phase which lasted 246 weeks. The current one, which started on March 24 of last year, is already 64 weeks old. Here a bull market is defined as the time taken for the sensex to double from its previous trough.In comparative terms of sensex gains, the current one has much leg left: On an average Indian markets returned 284%, that is nearly quadrupling of the index from its trough. In the current phase, the sensex has just about doubled from its trough of 25,639 points, the report pointed out.INDIA'S 6 BULL RUNS: THE RISE, TROUGHS AND PEAKS medium83980186 !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r In terms of average weekly return too, the current phase is lagging behind. “The average weekly return of 1.6% is still less than what we have seen in other bull markets and tells us that the apparently rapid pace of equity returns in the current bull market is nothing unique. (Also the) volatility of this weekly return at 3% is not different from history,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the report.In terms of relative performance too, India had outperformed emerging markets (EM) in each of the previous five bull markets with an average outperformance of 52% versus 23% for this bull market. “We expect India to continue to outperform EM in the coming months.”In terms of valuations, Morgan Stanley analysts feel that price-to-book (P/B) ratio is a better measure since price-to-earnings (P/E), the most popular gauge of valuation, is currently at a depressed state. “P/B is a better metric than P/E for comparisons...The ongoing bull market started at a similar multiple as historically. The current P/B of 3.6x compares with an average peak of 5.2x.” !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r In terms of interest rate in the economy during the bull phases, the current one, at 6.5%, is at a lowest among the past five since 10-year yield, the benchmark for risk-free rate of interest. The 10-year yield data for the 1991-92 bull phase is not available.